Black Swans

 

Black Swans

March 1, 2020

They glided lazily in circles against striking azure sky.  These turkey vultures sail effortlessly with such grace that they become a vision of peace and tranquility in a world of individuals experiencing the joy of living.  In maybe another 1000 feet of elevation a couple of Broad-winged hawks were sailing north, riding a strong wind flowing toward their summer home in Canada.  “All is right with this world” I thought.

But then, a dark cloud arose out of nowhere and swarms of black swans filled the air.  Like a bad dream, my imagination was running wild.  Remembering the news of the day brought me back to reality.  The DOW had fallen about 1000 points every day for the last 5 days and who knows when it will stop.

“Black swans” are rare events that no one could have predicted which dramatically alter the course of history, society, and economics.  So, the black swans that filled my imagination constitute a metaphor of what is happening in the real world, and nobody knows how it will end.

Tomorrow I will again try to observe the vultures and hawks and an attempt to calm my concerns about the consequences of the Covid-19 virus spreading across the civilized world — and playing a major role in this apparent “black swam” event.  As countries close their borders and interrupt supplies of food and other commodities, it is difficult to imagine the severity of economic, political and cultural changes heading our way.  They will not all be good.

Maybe, however, all is not darkness.  There are some rays of light.  This virus seems to largely spare the young, will likely become less virulent with the advent of warmer weather and drugs are begin developed to treat it.  Hopefully, my visions of “black swans” exaggerates the threat.  But, just in case, wash you hands often, stay out of crowds and cover your mouth when you caugh.  Probably not a bad idea to stock up on enough food and water to last at least a few weeks.

Of course, there is one certainty.  The political smear and blame-game will reach fever pitch.

But, some day, these black swans will fly away and they could leave behind a changed world — possibly even a better one.

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